Sales of new
single-family houses in November 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR) of 590,000 units (690,000 expected).
This is 12.2% (±15.6%)* below the revised October rate of 672,000 (originally
679,000 units), but 1.4% (±19.8%)* above the November 2022 SAAR of 582,000
units; the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in
the table above) was 0.0%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 57.5%
below the “housing bubble” peak and 21.6% below the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in November was $434,700 (+4.8% MoM, or
$19,800). The average sales price was $488,900 (-1.9%, or $9,600). Homes priced
at/above $750,000 comprised 7.3% of sales, down from the year-earlier 14.6%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As
mentioned in our post about
housing permits, starts and completions in November, single-unit completions slid
by 32,000 units (-3.2%). Sales fell by a greater amount (82,000 units, or -12.2%),
resulting in inventory for sale expanding in both absolute (+11,000 units) and months-of-inventory
terms (+1.3 months).
Existing home sales advanced (30,000 units or +0.8%) in November to a SAAR of 3.82 million units (3.775 million expected). The inventory of existing homes for sale contracted in both absolute (-20,000 units) and months-of-inventory (-0.1 month) terms. Because new sales retreated while resales rose, the share of total sales comprised of new homes decreased to 13.4%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in November dipped to $387,600 (-1.0% or $4,000).
Housing affordability fell 3.1 percentage points as the median price of
existing homes for sale in October retreated by $1,300 (-0.3% MoM; +3.0% YoY) to
$396,100. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices decelerated to a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +0.2% (but +4.9% YoY).
"U.S.
home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October,”
said Brian
Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital assets at S&P DJI. “Our
National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly
gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.
“Detroit
kept pace as the fastest growing market for the second month in a row,
registering an 8.1% annual gain. San Diego maintained the second spot with 7.2%
annual gains, following by New York with a 7.1% gain. We are experiencing broad-based
home price appreciation across the country, with steady gains seen in 19 of 20
cities. This month’s report reflects trendline growth compared to historical
returns and little disparity among cities and regions.
“Each
of our 10-city, 20-city and National Index, remain at all-time highs, with 8 of
20 cities registering all-time highs (Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit,
Charlotte, New York and Cleveland). While Portland remains slightly down
compared to last year’s gains, Phoenix and Las Vegas have flipped to year-over-year
gains. The Midwest and the Northeast region are fastest growing markets, while
the Southwest and West regions have lagged other regions for over a year. A
solid, if unspectacular report, this month’s index reflects a rising tide
across nearly all markets.
“Home prices leaned into the highest mortgage rates recorded in this market cycle and continued to push higher. With mortgage rates easing and the Federal Reserve guiding toward a slightly more accommodative stance, homeowners may be poised to see more appreciation.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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