Sales of new
single-family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR) of 664,000 units (650,000 expected).
This is 8.0% (±24.2%)* above the revised November rate of 615,000 (originally
590,000 units) and 4.4% (±20.6%)* above the December 2022 SAAR of 636,000
units; the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in
the table above) was +6.4%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 52.2%
below the “housing bubble” peak and 4.4% below the long-term, pre-2000 average.
An
estimated 668,000 new homes were sold in 2023. This is 4.2% (±5.2%)* above the
2022 figure of 641,000.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in December 2023 was $413,200 (-3.0% MoM,
or $12,800). The average sales price was $487,300 (+0.4%, or $1,800). Homes
priced at/above $750,000 comprised 8.0% of sales, down from the year-earlier
17.0%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in December, single-unit completions rose by 82,000 units (+8.4%). Sales advanced by a smaller amount (49,000 units, or +8.0%), resulting in inventory for sale expanding in absolute terms (+4,000 units) but shrinking in months-of-inventory terms (-0.6 month).
Existing home sales retreated (40,000 units or -1.0%) in December to a SAAR of 3.78 million units (3.80 million expected). The inventory of existing homes for sale contracted in both absolute (-130,000 units) and months-of-inventory (-0.3 month) terms. Because new sales advanced while resales fell, the share of total sales comprised of new homes increased to 14.9%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in December dipped to $382,600 (-1.3% or $5,100).
Housing affordability rose 2.8 percentage points as the median price of
existing homes for sale in November retreated by $3,900 (-1.0% MoM; +3.5% YoY)
to $392,100. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices fell to a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of -0.2% (but +5.1% YoY).
“U.S.
home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November,” says Brian
Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “The
streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to
levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the
largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.”
“November’s
year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with
our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit
held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row,
accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining
its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those
cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing
city in our composite.”
“Six
cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta,
Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual
decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of
6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest
gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of
performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.”
“The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend. The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over. The house price decline came at a time where mortgage rates peaked, with the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8%, according to Federal Reserve data. The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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