Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,521,000 units (1.449
million expected).
This is 10.7% (±14.2%)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000
(originally 1.331 million units) and 5.9% (±10.0%)* above the February 2023 SAAR
of 1,436,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was +4.7%.
Single-family
housing starts in February were at a SAAR of 1,129,000; this is 11.6% (±14.8%)*
above the revised January figure of 1,012,000 units (+34.5% YoY). Multi-family:
392,000 units (+8.3% MoM; -34.8% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,729,000. This is 19.7% (±18.5%) above the
revised January estimate of 1,445,000 (originally 1.416 million units) and 9.6%
(±15.6%)* above the February 2023 SAAR of 1,577,000 units; the NSA comparison: +11.1%
YoY.
Single-family were at a SAAR of 1,072,000; this is 20.2% (±17.7%) above the revised January rate of 892,000 units (+5.3% YoY). Multi-family: 657,000 units (+18.8% MoM; +23.9% YoY).
Total
permits were at a SAAR of 1,518,000 units (1.500 million expected). This is 1.9%
above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 (originally 1.470 million units)
and 2.4% above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000 units; the NSA comparison: +6.7
YoY.
Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 1,031,000; this is 1.0% above the revised January figure of 1,021,000 units (+35.1% YoY). Multi-family: 487,000 units (+4.1% MoM; -25.3% YoY).
Press
release from NAHB’s Robert Dietz:
“A
lack of existing inventory that continues to drive buyers to new home
construction, coupled with strong demand and mortgage rates below last fall’s
cycle peak, helped push builder sentiment above a key marker in March.
“Builder
confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed three
points to 51 in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest level since
July 2023 and marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index. It is
also the first time that the sentiment level has surpassed the breakeven point
of 50 since last July.
“Buyer
demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and
into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year,
particularly as the Fed is expected to enact rate cuts during the second half
of 2024. However, builders continue to face several supply-side challenges,
including a scarcity of buildable lots and skilled labor, and new restrictive
codes that continue to increase the cost of building homes. Building materials
will also face upward pressure on prices as home building activity expands.
“With
mortgage rates below 7% since mid-December per Freddie Mac, more builders are
cutting back on reducing home prices to boost sales. In March, 24% of builders
reported cutting home prices, down from 36% in December 2023 and the lowest
share since July 2023. However, the average price reduction in March held
steady at 6% for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales
incentives is holding firm. The share of builders offering some form of
incentive in March was 60%, and this has remained between 58% and 62% since
last September.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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