September 2011 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and New Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of shipments, inventories and new orders were mixed during September.
 

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Shipments increased for a fourth month, by $1.3 billion (0.3 percent) to $452.7 billion. Durable goods shipments decreased $1.3 billion (0.6 percent) to $200.2 billion, led by transportation equipment.

Shipments of nondurable goods increased $2.6 billion (1.0 percent) to $252.5 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood and Paper shipments both declined -- by 0.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively.
 

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Data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) help round out the picture on goods shipments. AAR reported a 19.4 percent decrease in not-seasonally adjusted rail shipments in September (relative to August), and a 1.1 percent rise compared to a year earlier. Seasonal adjustments boosted the 19.4 percent August-to-September decline into a 1.1 percent gain, however; thus, the seasonally adjusted Census Bureau value for total manufacturing and AAR volume estimates tracked together again.

The PCI, which tracks diesel use for over-the-highway trucking, fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis. Ed Leamer, PCI chief economist said, “With the continued weakness in September, the PCI-based forecast for third quarter GDP growth is zero,” well under the subsequent, official estimate of 2.5 percent.
 

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Inventories, up 23 of the last 24 months, increased $0.6 billion (0.1 percent) to $601.3 billion -- once again the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.33, unchanged from August.

Durable goods inventories increased $0.4 billion (0.1 percent) to $365.6 billion, led by transportation equipment. Inventories of nondurable goods increased $0.3 billion (0.1 percent) to $235.7 billion, also led by petroleum and coal products. Forest products inventories were split, with Wood declining by 0.8 percent and Paper rising by 0.2 percent.
 

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New orders increased for a third month in September, by $1.4 billion (0.3 percent), to $453.5 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Durable goods orders decreased $1.2 billion (0.6 percent) to $201.0 billion, led yet again by transportation equipment. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $2.6 billion (1.0 percent) to $252.5 billion.