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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

December 2011 Personal Income and Outlays, Retail Sales and Consumer Debt

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Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed that personal income increased $61.3 billion (0.5 percent), and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $47.1 billion (0.4 percent) in December. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $2.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. Real (inflation-adjusted) DPI increased 0.3 percent while real PCE decreased 0.1 percent.
 
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With real DPI growth essentially stalling on a year-over-year basis, consumers are reducing their rate of saving to maintain their lifestyles. The personal saving rate ticked back up to 4.0 percent in December, but the downward trend remains intact.
 
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Consumers bumped up spending by 0.1 percent on retail goods in December, but gains were concentrated in the vehicle and food service sectors as the “other” category fell by 0.3 percent.
 
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Total consumer debt outstanding increased substantially again in December, rising by a seasonally adjusted $19.3 billion (9.4 percent annualized). Revolving (mostly credit card) debt rose by $2.8 billion (4.1 percent annualized), while non-revolving debt (mainly student and auto loans) increased $16.6 billion (11.8 percent annualized). Student loans comprised over 64 percent of the gain in the non-revolving loan category.

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