March 2012 Macro Pulse -- Navigating with Foggy Data

Before the advent of modern technology, ships navigating in shallow water during foggy conditions had to rely on depth sounding with poles or weights attached to knotted lines to avoid sand bars and other obstacles. Progress was painfully slow as a result. Applying this analogy to today’s economic realm, determining the true state of the economy and whether it is in danger of running aground can be difficult in the best of times. The challenge is greatly compounded when the data are inconsistent, as is the case at present.

For example, the “rear-view mirror” perspective provided by 4Q2011 GDP is a bit rosier thanks to the upward revision to 3.0 percent growth. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book suggests “overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February.” More recent data, however, have been less positive. Some of the other conflicting data include….

Click here to read the entire March 2012 Macro Pulse recap.

The Macro Pulse blog is a commentary about recent economic developments affecting the forest products industry. That commentary provides context for our 24-month forecast, which is contained in the monthly Economic Outlook newsletter available through Forest2Market. The monthly Macro Pulse newsletter summarizes the previous 30 days of commentary available on this website.