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According to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was “little changed” at 8.1 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing. Government employment shrank by 15,000 (primarily at the local level). The change in total non-farm payroll employment for February was revised from +240,000 to +259,000, and the change for March was revised from +120,000 to +154,000.
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As we have been pointing out for quite some time, employment is converging with the previous peak at a slower pace than any prior recession going back to 1973. The economy still has 5.03 million fewer jobs than at the January 2008 peak, a level previously seen in February 2009 and April 2005.
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The number of people
not in the labor force rose by 522,000 in April, extending the 333,000 rise in March; the April level is a new all-time high and is an important element for why the unemployment rate dropped. Unlike in January, the rise cannot be blamed on Census Bureau population adjustments. The ratio of employed persons to the entire population continues to move sideways, with a possibly weakening bias.
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The
civilian labor force participation rate (the share of the population 16 years and older working or seeking work) retreated to 63.6 percent, from March’s 63.8 percent -- the lowest rate since December 1981. At the same time, the annual percentage increase in
average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees ticked lower, to 1.70 percent (over 0.1 percentage point lower than in March). With the price index for urban consumers rising at a 2.7 percent annual pace, wages are falling in real terms (i.e., wage increases are not keeping up with price inflation).
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Full-time employment dropped by 812,000 at the same time part-time employment rose by 181,000. The declining trend for part-time employment had appeared to be strengthening along with the upward trend in full-time employment (especially if viewed from January 2010), but April’s changes call those trends into question.
Taken at face value, this employment report is quite disappointing.
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