November 2012 International Trade

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Total November exports of $182.6 billion and imports of $231.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $48.7 billion, up from $42.1 billion in October (revised). November exports were $1.7 billion more than October exports of $180.8 billion.  November imports were $8.4 billion more than October imports of $222.9 billion.

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Paper exports retreated, falling by 103,000 tons (4.0 percent). Imports rose modestly, by 58,000 tons (7.7 percent). Exports were 75,000 tons (3.1 percent) higher than a year earlier while imports were up by 42,000 tons (5.5 percent).

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U.S. pulp exports to China are nearly an order of magnitude larger than exports to the second-largest country in the list above (i.e., Mexico), and have been relatively stable year-to-date compared to 2011. Asia is the destination for over three-fourths of U.S. pulp exports, with the rest of North America running a distant second.

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Paper and paperboard exports are somewhat more evenly split; the combination of Mexico and Canada receive a little more than one-third of U.S. exports, while Asia (especially India and Japan) is the destination for just under a third.

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Canada supplies over two-thirds of pulp imports into the United States, followed distantly by Brazil.

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Pegging nearly 90 percent, Canada absolutely dominates paper and paperboard imports into the United States.

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Softwood lumber exports fell by 6 MMBF (4.0 percent) in November while imports plummeted by 110 MMBF (11.8 percent). Exports were 1 MMBF (1.1 percent) lower than year-earlier levels; imports were 57 MMBF (7.5 percent) lower.

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North America (Canada and Mexico), followed by Asia (especially China and Japan), continue to be the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Meanwhile, Canada is far-and-away the largest source of softwood lumber imports into the United States.

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Just over half of U.S. softwood lumber exports have left the country through West Coast (especially Seattle, WA) customs districts. At the same time, however, Great Lakes customs districts (especially Duluth, MN) have handled most of the softwood lumber imports coming into the United States.

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Douglas-fir has made up nearly one-quarter of all softwood lumber exports so far in 2012, followed by southern yellow pine.

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume edged up by 0.4 percent in October while prices fell by 0.4 percent.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.