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Bureau of
Economic Analysis data showed that personal
income increased $85.8 billion (0.6 percent) and disposable personal income
(DPI) rose $74.7 billion (0.6 percent) in November. Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) advanced $41.3 billion (0.4 percent). Real
(inflation-adjusted) DPI increased 0.8 percent while real PCE increased 0.6
percent.
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Although
aggregate personal income continues to set new highs on a nominal basis, in
inflation-adjusted terms it only finally exceeded the previous peak in November.
Taking population growth into account makes the picture even gloomier;
per-capita real personal income has recouped less than two-thirds of the prior
peak-to-trough loss. It remains to be seen whether November’s jump upward can
be sustained or trends lower in the fashion of 2011.
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The
Census Bureau reported that consumers increased retail spending during November by 0.3
percent (seasonally adjusted); greater auto sales and online purchases overcame
the drag from gas stations. On an unadjusted basis, sales rose 2.5
percent between October and November, led by general merchandise stores.
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Total
consumer debt
outstanding rose by a seasonally adjusted $16.045 billion (7.0 percent
annualized) in November. Revolving (mostly credit card) debt increased by $0.8
billion (1.1 percent annualized), while non-revolving debt (mainly student and auto
loans) increased by $15.2 billion (9.6 percent annualized). Federal student
loans comprised nearly two-thirds of the increase in non-revolving debt, and
over one-quarter of the increase in total debt outstanding.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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