June 2013 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index rose sharply in June and accounted for about two-thirds of the seasonally adjusted all items change. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining. The food index increased in June as the index for food at home turned up after declining in May.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for finished goods (PPI) rose 0.8 percent in June. Prices for finished goods rose 0.5 percent in May and fell 0.7 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods advanced 0.5 percent in June, and the crude goods index was unchanged. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended June 2013, the largest 12-month rise since a 2.8 percent increase in March 2012. 

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Forest products-related price indices generally appear to be in the process of “topping out” or are in decline. Only the Pulp, Paper & Allied Products index achieved a new high in June, ticking up by 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, Lumber & Wood Products and Softwood Lumber both dropped (the latter quite significantly) in June; still, they are noticeably higher than year-earlier levels. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.