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Total
housing starts rose
modestly in March, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR ) of 946,000 units. That was 26,000 more units (2.8
percent) than February’s 920,000, but still 14.1 percent below November’s peak
of 1.101 million units. The single-family component contributed all of the increase
(36,000 units or 6.0 percent) since the multi-family component decreased by 10,000
units (-3.1 percent).
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The
year-over-year percentage change in total starts contracted for a second time,
dropping to -5.0 percent. Single-family starts were 2.9 percent above March
2012’s levels; the more volatile multi-family component shrank by 18.5 percent.
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Completions
edged lower (2,000 units or -0.2 percent) in March, to 872,000 units SAAR . The decrease was confined to the single-family
component (-24,000 units versus +22,000 multi-family units). Total completions
were 9.4 percent above year-earlier levels.
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Total
permits dropped by 24,000 units (-2.4 percent) SAAR ,
to 0.990 million in March. The decrease occurred entirely in the multi-family
component (27,000 units or -6.4 percent); single-family permits nudged higher by
3,000 units (0.5 percent).
Despite
March’s uptick in the year-over-year percentage change in total permits (to 9.5
percent), the rate of growth still did not break the slowing trend seen since
late 2012. This trend is most readily apparent in the recent erosion of builder
confidence. The National Association of Home Builders confidence
index rose one point (to 47) in April (recall the index dropped by the
largest monthly amount in the survey’s history, into negative sentiment
territory, during February). An index reading below 50 means more builders
think market conditions are poor than think they are good.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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