Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
Sales of new
single-family homes fell by a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of
65,000 units (-14.5 percent) to 380,000 in March. Sales were 12.2 percent below
year-earlier levels. Meanwhile, the median price of new homes sold jumped (by $29,100
or 11.2 percent) to $290,000. Because starts increased while sales decreased during
March, the three-month average starts-to-sales ratio rose to 1.41 (from 1.37).
Click here
for our post on March housing permits, starts and completions.
Click image
for larger view
Single-unit
completions dipped (-24,000 units or 3.8 percent) while sales fell even further
(-65,000 units or 14.5 percent) in March. As a result, new-home inventory rose in
both absolute (+6,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+1.0 month) terms.
Click image
for larger view
Existing home sales
inched lower again in March, by 10,000 units (-0.2 percent) to 4.59 million units
(SAAR) -- the slowest rate since July 2012. The share of total sales comprised
of new homes retreated below 8 percent. The median price of previously owned
homes sold in March advanced (by $10,200 or 5.4 percent), to $198,500.
Inventory of existing homes crept up in both absolute (+90,000 units) and
months-of-inventory (+0.2 month) terms.
Click image
for larger view
Housing
affordability improved marginally in February even though the median price
of existing homes for sale rose by $1,300 to $189,200. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s
reported that the 10- and 20-City Composites in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
Price indices posted not-seasonally adjusted monthly changes of less than ±0.1
percent in February (respectively, +13.1 and +12.9 percent relative to a year
earlier).
“Prices
remained steady from January to February for the two Composite indices,” observed
David
Blitzer, Chair of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The
annual rates cooled the most we’ve seen in some time. The three California
cities and Las Vegas have the strongest increases over the last 12 months as
the West continues to lead. Denver and Dallas remain the only cities which have
reached new post-crisis price peaks. The Northeast with New York, Washington
and Boston are seeing some of the slowest year-over-year gains. However, even
their prices are above their levels of early 2013. On a month-to-month basis,
there is clear weakness. Seasonally adjusted data show prices rose in 19
cities, but a majority at a slower pace than in January.
“Despite
continued price gains, most other housing statistics are weak. Sales of both
new and existing homes are flat to down. The recovery in housing starts, now
less than one million units at annual rates, is faltering. Moreover, home
prices nationally have not made it back to 2005. Mortgage interest rates, which
jumped in May last year and are steady since then, are blamed by some analysts
for the weakness. Others cite difficulties in qualifying for loans and concerns
about consumer confidence. The result is less demand and fewer homes being
built.
“Five
years into the recovery from the recession,” Blitzer concluded, “the economy
will need to look to gains in consumer spending and business investment more
than housing. Long overdue activity in residential construction would be
welcome, but is certainly not assured.”
Click image
for larger view
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.