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Thursday, October 2, 2014

September 2014 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended its retreat for a third month, falling $3.23 to $93.31 per barrel. That price drop coincided with a notably stronger U.S. dollar and the lagged impacts of a 331,000 barrel-per-day (BPD) increase in the amount of oil supplied in July (to 19.2 million BPD), but occurred despite a continued downward trend in crude oil stocks. The monthly average price spread between Brent crude (the predominant grade used in Europe) and WTI narrowed by $1.17 in September, to $3.90 per barrel. 
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“In general the drop in oil prices is being driven by what is perceived to be too much oil chasing too few buyers,” wrote ASPO-USA’s Tom Whipple. “Economies are sagging in the EU and China. U.S. demand is up a bit though not that strong. Credit Suisse says that production cuts are necessary to shore up oil prices. The outlook seems to be that still lower prices are ahead (Iran expects $90/barrel oil by March). If this should happen several crude exporting countries will have trouble keeping their budgets in balance and some U.S. shale oil producers will have trouble making a profit.”
News that Saudi Arabia is cutting its selling price seems to support Whipple’s prediction. “We consider that absent a supply disruption in Iraq, crude prices are likely to remain at subdued levels over the medium term as supply growth exceeds demand growth,” agreed National Australia Bank economist Phin Ziebell. However, “given that crude futures are already at their multiyear lows, we see limited downside risk to prices at this juncture,” said Barnabas Gan, an analyst at Singapore’s OCBC Bank, “especially as geopolitical risk-premiums may have already been substantially narrowed.” 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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