Click image
for larger view
According
to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics’ (BLS )
establishment survey, non-farm payroll employment increased by 214,000 in October
-- well below MarketWatch’s
and Reuters’
respective expectations of 243,000 and 231,000. Also, the unemployment rate (from the BLS ’s household survey) ticked
down to 5.8 percent on the basis of increased employment rather than the more
typical reason that people dropped out of the labor force.
Employment
rose in virtually all supersectors. Of particular interest, construction added
12,000 jobs while manufacturing added 15,000. However, 130,000 (over 60 percent)
of all non-farm jobs created were in sectors (i.e., Professional & Business
Services, Education and Health Services, and Leisure & Hospitality) that generally
command below-average wages. In fact, one analyst observed
that the number of bartenders and wait staff is coming close to equaling the
number of manufacturing workers. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment
for August was revised from +180,000 to +203,000, and the change for September
was revised from +248,000 to +256,000. With these revisions, employment gains
in August and September combined were 31,000 more than previously reported.
Click image
for larger view
Other
internals of
the report were modestly upbeat. For example, the employment-population ratio
rose slightly at the same time the number of employment-age persons not in the
labor force retreated to 92.4 million from its recent peak of 92.6 million.
Click image
for larger view
Also,
the labor force participation rate edged up by 0.1 percent. Average hourly
earnings of all private employees rose by $0.03, resulting in a 2 percent
year-over-year increase. For all production and nonsupervisory employees
(pictured above), wages rose by $0.04/hour (+2.2 percent YOY). With CPI -U running at an official annual rate of 1.7
percent, wages are technically keeping up with price inflation.
Click image
for larger view
Finally, although the rate of increase in full-time
jobs and the rate of decrease in part-time jobs both moderated, at least both metrics
continued to trend in the desired direction.
Click image
for larger view
The
figure above presents a variety of forecasts related to when employment might converge
with the number of jobs that likely would exist had the recession not occurred
(gray line).
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.