What is Macro Pulse?

Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
Macro Pulse's timely yet in-depth coverage.


Wednesday, November 26, 2014

October 2014 U.S. Home Sales, Inventory and Prices

Click image for larger view 
Click image for larger view
Sales of new single-family homes in October edged up by 3,000 units (+0.7%) relative to the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 458,000. Data for September was revised down from 467,000 to 435,000 units, while data for August was trimmed further (to 453,000 -- considerably below the original 504,000 units). Sales in October were 2.8% above year-earlier levels. Meanwhile, the median price of new homes sold shot up by $43,300 (+16.6%) to $305,000, more than recouping September’s $26,000 drop; October's median price is well above the previous high of $279,300 set back in April 2013. The average price of homes sold jumped by an even more incredible $86,900, as approximately half of the homes sold were valued at $300,000 or higher. Although single-family starts rose faster than sales in October, the three-month average ratio of starts to sales dropped to 1.47. Click here for our post on October’s housing permits, starts and completions. 
Click image for larger view
Single-unit completions plummeted by 47,000 units (-7.4%) in October. Nonetheless, new-home inventory expanded both in absolute (+2,000 units) and months-of-inventory (0.1 month) terms. 
Click image for larger view
Existing home sales advanced in October (+80,000 units or 1.5%) to 5.26 million units (SAAR). With sales of new homes rising more slowly than existing homes, the share of total sales comprised of new homes slipped back to 8.0%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in October dropped again (-$800 or 0.4%) to $208,300. Inventory of existing homes shrank in both absolute (-60,000 units) and months-of-inventory terms (0.2 month). 
Click image for larger view
Housing affordability improved again in September because the median price of existing homes for sale fell by $8,800 (-4.0%) to $210,300. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices posted a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of -0.1% in September but a +4.8% change relative to a year earlier.
“The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down,” said David Blitzer, chair of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Index reported its first negative monthly returns since December 2013 and its worst annual returns since December 2012 due to weaknesses in Washington D.C. and Boston. The West and Southwest, previously strong regions, are seeing price gains fade. The only region showing any sustained strength is the Southeast led by Florida; price gains are also evident in Atlanta and Charlotte.
“Other housing statistics paint a mixed to slightly positive picture,” Blitzer continued. “Housing starts held above one million at annual rates on gains in single family homes, sales of existing homes are gaining, builders’ sentiment is improving, foreclosures continue to be worked off and mortgage default rates are at pre-crisis levels. With the economy looking better than a year ago, the housing outlook for 2015 is stable to slightly better.” 
Click image for larger view
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.