January 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

Click image for larger view

Softwood lumber exports decreased by 5 MMBF (-4.5%) in January while imports fell by 77 MMBF (-7.3%). Exports were 39 MMBF (25.7%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 91 MMBF (10.3%) higher. The net export deficit was 130 MMBF (17.7%) higher. 

Click image for larger view

The rest of North America (i.e., Canada and Mexico) was once again the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in January (47.4%). Asia (especially China and Japan) was a distant second (33.8%). Canada was also the largest single-country destination (25.6%). Exports to China were down 63.9% relative to the same period in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (93.8%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, exports were down 25.7% compared to a year earlier, while imports were up 10.3%. 

Click image for larger view 

Click image for larger view

Despite the port slowdown, U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts stayed relatively stable in relation to the other districts during January (39.2% of the U.S. total); Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 26.2% of the January total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 67.3% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 27.1%) coming into the United States. 

Click image for larger view 

Click image for larger view

Southern yellow pine comprised 25.9% of all softwood lumber exports in January, followed by Douglas-fir with 18.3%. Southern pine exports were down 12.4% relative to a year earlier, while Douglas-fir exports were down 38.6%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.