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According
to the U.S.
Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments decreased $9.8
billion or 2.0% to $479.1 billion in January. Shipments of durable goods decreased
$2.5 billion or 1.0% to $245.4 billion, led by transportation equipment.
Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased $7.4 billion or 3.1% to $233.7
billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood shipments rose by 0.3% while Paper
fell 0.3%.
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Inventories
decreased $2.5 billion or 0.4% to $650.5 billion. The inventories-to-shipments
ratio was 1.36, up from 1.34 in December.
Inventories
of durable goods increased $1.7 billion or 0.4% to $412.4 billion, led by
transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories decreased $4.2 billion
or 1.7% to $238.1 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of
Wood and Paper expanded by, respectively, 1.1 and 0.5%.
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New
orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2% to $470.0 billion; expectations
had been +0.2%. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.8% -- the eighth
drop in the last nine months. Durable goods orders increased $6.5 billion or
2.8% to $236.3 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for
nondurable goods decreased $7.4 billion or 3.1% to $233.7 billion.
Prior
to July 2014, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new
orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping roughly 75% of the
losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July’s
transportation-led spike now in the rearview mirror, new orders have at around 57%
of their December 2007 high.
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Unfilled
durable-goods orders decreased $2.2 billion or 0.2% to $1,163.4 billion, led by
transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.68, up
from 6.65 in December. Real unfilled orders, which had been
a good litmus
test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms,
unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to just 79% of their December 2008 peak.
Real unfilled orders jumped to 102% of the prior peak in July, thanks to the
largest-ever batch of aircraft orders, hence, this metric is likely to remain elevated
for several years.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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