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Privately
owned housing
starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.172
million (1.135 million expected).
That was 6.6 percent (±10.2%)* above the revised March estimate of 1,099
million (originally 1.089 million). Most of the increase was in the
multi-family category: +48,000 units (13.9%); single-family rose by 25,000
units, to a rate of 778,000; that was 3.3 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised
March figure of 753,000.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not
statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for
the entire multi-unit category.
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April’s
total SAAR was 1.7 percent (±10.1%)* below the April 2015 rate of 1.192
million; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was -0.5%.
Single-family starts were 6.2% higher YoY, while multi-family component was
12.3% lower. Equally noteworthy, multi-family starts YTD through
April were 1.8% below the same months in 2015.
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Total
completions fell by 115,000 units, or 11.0 percent (±12.3%)* to 933,000 units. That
was 7.4 percent (±10.6%)* below the April 2015 SAAR of 1.008 million; the NSA
comparison: -5.8% YoY.
The
MoM decline was concentrated in the multi-family component (-89,000 units, or
-26.9%). Single-family housing completions fell by 26,000 units, or 3.6 percent
(±12.6%)* to a SAAR of 691,000. Single-family completions were 2.1% above
their year-earlier NSA level, while the multi-family component was 23.5% lower.
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Total
permits increased by 39,000 units or 3.6 percent (±1.3%) to 1.116 million
units. That SAAR was 5.3 percent (±1.3%) below the April 2015 level; the NSA
comparison was -7.2% YoY.
The
MoM rise was concentrated in the multi-family component (+28,000 units or
8.0%). Single-family permits increased by 11,000 units or 1.5 percent (±0.8%) to
736,000 units. On a YoY basis, single-family permits were 3.5% higher, but
multi-family units were 24.3% lower; multi-family permits were
also 10.6% lower YTD through April than the same months in 2015.
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Builder
confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes was unchanged at 58
in May on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI).
“Builder
confidence has held steady at 58 for four straight months, which indicates that
the single-family housing sector remains in positive territory,” said NAHB
Chairman Ed Brady. “However, builders
are facing an increasing number of regulations and lot supply constraints.”
The
HMI components measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased
three points to 65, while the component charting current sales conditions and
the index gauging buyer traffic both held steady at 63 and 44, respectively.
“The
fact that future sales expectations rose slightly this month shows that
builders are confident that the market will continue to strengthen,” said NAHB
Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Job creation, low mortgage interest rates and
pent-up demand will also spur growth in the single-family housing sector moving
forward.”
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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