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Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.142 million units (1.190
million expected).
That was 5.8 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised July estimate of 1.212 million
units (originally 1.211 million units). The single-family component led the
decrease: -46,000 units, or -6.0 percent (±8.2%)*; multi-family starts declined
by 24,000 (-5.4%).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not
statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for
the entire multi-unit category.
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August’s
total SAAR was 0.9 percent (±12.5%)* above the August 2015 SAAR of 1.132
million; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was
+1.5%. Single-family starts were 0.5% higher YoY, and the multi-family
component was +3.7%.
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Total
completions fell by 37,000 units, or 3.4 percent (±10.9%)*, to a SAAR of 1.043
million. That was 8.3 percent (±11.8%)* above the August 2015 SAAR of 963,000;
the NSA comparison: +6.7% YoY.
Single-family
completions retreated by 2,000 units, or 0.3 percent (±10.2%)*, to 752,000
units -- but still +13.0% YoY. Multi-family completions slumped by 35,000 units
(-10.7% MoM), and -4.2% YoY.
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Total
permits slipped by 5,000 units, or 0.4 percent (±1.6%)*, to 1.139 million units (1.167 million expected).
That was 2.3 percent (±1.5%) below the August 2015 SAAR of 1.166 million. As an
indication of the influence of seasonal adjustments on estimates and
perceptions, the non-seasonally adjusted YoY comparison is a much more upbeat +8.7%.
Single-family
authorizations were estimated at 737,000 units -- +26,000 units or 3.7 percent
(±3.0%) above the July figure. Multi-family permits dropped by 31,000 units
(-7.2%) to 370,000. On a YoY basis, single-family permits were 15.0% higher,
and the multi-family component 4.2% lower.
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Builder
confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in September
jumped six points to 65 from a downwardly revised August reading of 59 on the
National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI). This marks the highest HMI level since October 2015.
“As
household incomes rise, builders in many markets across the nation are
reporting they are seeing more serious buyers, a positive sign that the housing
market continues to move forward,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “The
single-family market continues to make gradual gains and we expect this upward
momentum will build throughout the remainder of the year and into 2017.”
“With
the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident
that if they can build more homes they can sell them,” said NAHB Chief Economist
Robert Dietz. “Though solid job creation and low interest rates are also
fueling demand, builders continue to be hampered by supply-side constraints
that include shortages of labor and lots.”
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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