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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (-14 MMBF or 9.4%) in July, along with imports (-37 MMBF
or 2.6%). Exports were 2 MMBF (1.6%) above
year-earlier levels; imports were 363 MMBF (35.3%) higher. As a result, the
year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 361 MMBF (40.1%) larger. The
average net export deficit for the 12 months ending July 2016 was 33.7% higher
than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng”
series shown in the graph above).
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North
America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in July (41.8%,
of which Canada: 20.2%; Mexico: 21.6%). Asia (especially China: 18.6%) ranked second,
with 33.5%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were up 14.2% relative to the
same months in 2015. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.5%) softwood
lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were up 0.1%
compared to 2015, while imports were up 37.6%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts represented
the largest proportion in July (35.2% of the U.S. total), although the Eastern and
Gulf districts were not far behind (29.0% and 28.1%, respectively); Seattle maintained
its dominance as the most active export district (22.4% of the U.S. total). At
the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 66.8% of the softwood
lumber imports -- most notably Duluth, MN (28.3%) -- coming into the United
States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 32.6% of all softwood lumber exports in July, followed by
Douglas-fir with 11.7%. Southern pine exports were up 14.2% YTD relative to 2015,
while Doug-fir exports were down 18.0%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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