November 2017 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,297,000 units (1.240 million expected). This is 3.3% (±9.1%)* above the revised October estimate of 1,256,000 (originally 1.290 million units), and 12.9% (±11.7%) above the November 2016 SAAR of 1,149,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +12.1%.

Single-family housing starts in November were at a SAAR of 930,000; this is 5.3% (±10.2%)* above the revised October figure of 883,000 and +12.0% YoY. Multi-family starts: 367,000 units (-1.6% MoM; +12.1% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Total completions amounted to a SAAR of 1,116,000 units. This is 6.1% (±10.4%)* below the revised October estimate of 1,189,000 units, and 7.2% (±12.5%)* below the November 2016 SAAR of 1,203,000; the NSA comparison: -7.0% YoY.

Single-family housing completions were at a SAAR of 752,000; that is 4.6% (±12.0%)* below the revised October rate of 788,000 and -2.4% YoY. Multi-family completions: 364,000 units (-9.2% MoM; -16.5% YoY).

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Total permits were at a SAAR of 1,298,000 units (1.270 million expected). That is 1.4% (±1.7%)* below the revised October rate of 1,316,000, but 3.4% (±2.3%) above the November 2016 rate of 1,255,000; the NSA comparison: +2.1 YoY.

Single-family authorizations were at a rate of 862,000; this is 1.4% (±1.6%)* above the revised October figure of 850,000 and +10.4% YoY. Multi-family: 436,000 (-6.4% MoM; -9.8% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to a level of 74 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after a downwardly revised November reading. This was the highest report since July 1999, over 18 years ago.

“Housing market conditions are improving partially because of new policies aimed at providing regulatory relief to the business community,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

“The HMI measure of home buyer traffic rose eight points, showing that demand for housing is on the rise,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With low unemployment rates, favorable demographics and a tight supply of existing home inventory, we can expect continued upward movement of the single-family construction sector next year.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.