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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Saturday, January 13, 2018

December 2017 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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The seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1% in December (+0.1% expected). An increase of 0.4% in the shelter index accounted for almost 80% of the MoM all-items increase. The food index rose in December, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing. The energy index, which rose sharply in November, declined in December as the gasoline index decreased.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3% in December, its largest increase since January 2017. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance were among those that increased in December. The indexes for apparel, airline fares, and tobacco all declined over the month.
The all-items index rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending December, compared to 2.2% for the 12 months ending November. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.8% over the last year; the 12-month change has now been either 1.7 or 1.8% for eight consecutive months. The food index rose 1.6% over the past year; the index for energy increased 6.9%, with all of its major component indexes rising during 2017.
The seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand (PPI) fell 0.1% in December (+0.2 expected). Final demand prices advanced 0.4% in both November and October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.6% in 2017 after a 1.7% rise in 2016.
Most of the December decline in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2% decrease in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in December after rising 0.4% in November. In 2017, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 2.3% following a 1.8% advance in 2016.
Final Demand
Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved down 0.2% in December following nine consecutive increases. Most of the decrease can be traced to a 0.6% decline in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4%. Conversely, the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing inched up 0.1%.
Product detail: A major factor in the December decline in prices for final demand services was the index for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing, which fell 10.7%. The indexes for loan services (partial); airline passenger services; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; legal services; and health, beauty, and optical goods retailing also moved lower. In contrast, prices for inpatient care advanced 0.7%. The indexes for truck transportation of freight and apparel wholesaling also increased.
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods were unchanged in December following a 1.0% increase in November. The index for final demand less foods and energy advanced 0.2%. Conversely, prices for final demand foods declined 0.7%. The index for final demand energy was unchanged.
Product detail: In December, prices for basic organic chemicals advanced 3.9%. The indexes for jet fuel, diesel fuel, home heating oil, and processed young chickens also moved higher. In contrast, prices for beef and veal fell 6.3%. The indexes for gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, liquefied petroleum gas, and turbines and turbine generator sets also moved lower. 
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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track were mixed on MoM and YoY bases. 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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