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Softwood
lumber exports inched up (1 MMBF or +0.8%) in November, while imports fell (43 MMBF
or -3.1%). Exports were 13 MMBF (+9.5%) above year-earlier levels; imports were
44 MMBF (+3.4%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export
deficit was 31 MMBF (2.7%) larger. However, the average net export deficit for
the 12 months ending November 2017 was 9.6% smaller than the average of the
same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph
above).
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Asia
(especially China: 22.8%) and North America (of which Canada: 17.5%; Mexico: 17.0%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November. Not
surprisingly, in light of last summer’s hurricanes, the Caribbean ranked third
with a 22.4% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were +20.2% relative to
the same months in 2016. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (91.3%) of softwood
lumber imports into the United States. Interestingly, imports from Canada are 12.3%
lower
YTD than the same months in 2016. Overall, YTD exports were up 5.2% compared to
2016, while imports were down 9.4%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the Eastern customs region represented
the largest proportion in November (38.0% of the U.S. total), followed by the West
Coast (29.0%) and the Gulf (25.5%) regions. However, Seattle maintained a modest
lead (17.4% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (17.0%) and Savannah (13.4%) as the
single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled
62.9% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (27.8%)
-- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 29.5% of all softwood lumber exports in November,
followed by other pine (16.7%), treated lumber (15.9%) and Douglas-fir (12.5%).
Southern pine exports were up 8.6% YTD relative to 2016, while other pine: +107.0%;
treated: +25.0%; Doug-fir: +8.7%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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