April 2018 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in April at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,287,000 units (1.325 million expected). This is 3.7% (±11.4%)* below the revised March estimate of 1,336,000 (originally 1.319 million units), but 10.5% (±9.7%) above the April 2017 SAAR of 1,165,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +11.8%.

Single-family housing starts in April were at a SAAR of 894,000; this is 0.1% (±11.8%)* above the revised March figure of 893,000 (+9.6% YoY). Multi-family starts: 393,000 units (-11.3% MoM; +17.7% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Completions in April were at a SAAR of 1,257,000 units. This is 2.8% (±10.1%)* above the revised March estimate of 1,223,000 and 14.8% (±10.5%) above the April 2017 SAAR of 1,095,000 units; the NSA comparison: +14.0% YoY.

Single-family housing completions in April were at a rate of 820,000; this is 4.0% (±9.2%)* below the revised March rate of 854,000 (+5.0% YoY). Multi-family completions: 437,000 units (+18.4% MoM; 37.3% YoY). 

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Total permits in April were at a SAAR of 1,352,000 units (1.350 million expected). This is 1.8% (±1.3%) below the revised March rate of 1,377,000 (originally 1.354 million units), but 7.7% (±0.9%) above the April 2017 SAAR of 1,255,000 units; the NSA comparison: +13.0% YoY.

Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 859,000; this is 0.9% (±1.4%)* above the revised March figure of 851,000. (+13.4% YoY). Multi-family: 493,000 (-6.3% MoM; +12.0% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to a level of 70 in May after a downwardly revised April reading on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the fourth time the HMI has reached 70 or higher this year.

“The solid May report shows that builders are buoyed by growing consumer demand for single-family homes,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “However, the record-high cost of lumber is hurting builders’ bottom lines and making it more difficult to produce competitively priced houses for newcomers to the market.”

“Tight housing inventory, employment gains and demographic tailwinds should continue to boost demand for newly-built single-family homes,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With these fundamentals in place, the housing market should improve at a steady, gradual pace in the months ahead.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.