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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Monday, May 7, 2018

March 2018 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports advanced (22 MMBF or +14.7%) in March, and imports rose (226 MMBF or +22.2%). Exports were 24 MMBF (+16.7%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 130 MMBF (-9.5%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 154 MMBF (12.6%) smaller. Moreover, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending March 2018 was 12.1% smaller than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above). 
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Asia (especially China: 23.0%) and North America (of which Canada: 22.1%; Mexico: 14.3%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in March; the Caribbean ranked third with a 20.9% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were +47.6% relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (91.5%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada are 15.4% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports were up 12.8% compared to 2017, while imports were down 16.0%. 
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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the Eastern customs region represented the largest proportion in March (39.2% of the U.S. total), followed by the West Coast (28.8%) and the Gulf (22.2%) regions. However, Seattle regained its lead (17.9% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (14.8%) and Savannah (13.8%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 64.3% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (26.5%) -- coming into the United States. 
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Southern yellow pine comprised 36.0% of all softwood lumber exports in March, Douglas-fir (11.6%) and treated lumber (12.6%). Southern pine exports were up 34.3% YTD relative to 2017, while treated: +2.7%; Doug-fir: -6.7%.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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