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Softwood
lumber exports advanced (22 MMBF or +14.7%) in March, and imports rose (226 MMBF
or +22.2%). Exports were 24 MMBF (+16.7%) above year-earlier levels; imports were
130 MMBF (-9.5%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export
deficit was 154 MMBF (12.6%) smaller. Moreover, the average net export deficit
for the 12 months ending March 2018 was 12.1% smaller than the average of the
same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph
above).
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Asia
(especially China: 23.0%) and North America (of which Canada: 22.1%; Mexico: 14.3%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in March; the
Caribbean ranked third with a 20.9% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China
were +47.6% relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source
of most (91.5%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from
Canada are 15.4% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports were
up 12.8% compared to 2017, while imports were down 16.0%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the Eastern customs region represented
the largest proportion in March (39.2% of the U.S. total), followed by the West
Coast (28.8%) and the Gulf (22.2%) regions. However, Seattle regained its lead
(17.9% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (14.8%) and Savannah (13.8%) as the
single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled
64.3% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (26.5%)
-- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 36.0% of all softwood lumber exports in March, Douglas-fir
(11.6%) and treated lumber (12.6%). Southern pine exports were up 34.3% YTD relative
to 2017, while treated: +2.7%; Doug-fir: -6.7%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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