The Institute for
Supply Management‘s (ISM) monthly sentiment survey showed U.S.
manufacturing expanding more slowly during November. The
The services sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- also expanded at a marginally slower rate (-0.7PP, to 55.9%). The most noteworthy changes in the services PMI (formerly known as NMI) sub-indexes included a drop in inventories (-3.8PP) and order backlogs (-3.7PP), and a jump in input prices (+2.2PP).
Of the industries we track,
only Real Estate contracted. Comments from respondents included:
Construction.
“Business is pushing to complete projects due to seasonality in most of our
markets. Volume is strong at this point but will gradually slow as temperatures
drop in most of the country.”
Relevant commodities:
Priced higher.
Corrugate and corrugate boxes, freight, lumber and lumber products, natural gas,
plywood products, and construction contractors.
Priced lower.
Diesel and caustic soda.
Prices mixed.
None.
In short supply. Corrugate boxes, construction contractors and subcontractors,
and temporary labor.
Findings
of IHS Markit‘s
November survey results were again more positive than their ISM counterparts.
Manufacturing. Steepest improvement in operating conditions since
September 2014.
Key findings:
*
Overall growth boosted by marked expansions in output and new orders
* Fastest rise in cost burdens since October 2018
* Business confidence strongest since February 2015
Services. Sharpest increase in activity since March 2015.
Key findings:
*
Substantial upturns in output and new business
* Employment rises at fastest pace in survey history
* Price indices at survey highs as cost pressures intensify
Commentary
by Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist:
Manufacturing. “The manufacturing recovery kicked up a gear in
November, with production growth accelerating to the highest for over six
years.
“Most
encouraging was the breakdown of the rise in new orders which underpinned the
expansion. Although demand for consumer goods remained somewhat subdued, mainly
reflecting rising virus infection rates, demand for investment goods such as
business equipment and machinery rose especially sharply.
“The
rise in investment spending sends a welcome signal that companies have become
more optimistic about longer term prospects, something that was reinforced by a
surge in firms’ expectations about production in the year ahead -- even in
consumer-facing sectors -- to the highest since early-2015.
“Confidence
was boosted by encouraging vaccine news during the month, auguring well for
life returning to normal at some point in the coming year, as well as hopes of
increased stimulus spending and infrastructure investment following the
election.”
Services. “November saw U.S. business activity surge higher at
a rate not seen since early 2015 as companies enjoyed sharply rising demand for
goods and services. Confidence has picked up considerably, with encouraging
news on vaccines coinciding with reduced political uncertainty following the
presidential election, hopes of greater stimulus spending and fresh stock
market highs. Optimism about the future is running at its highest since
early-2014.
“The
recent improvement in demand and the brightening outlook encouraged firms to
take on extra staff at a rate not previously seen since the survey began in
2009, underscoring how increased optimism is fueling investment and expansion.
“Pricing
power is also being regained, with firms pushing up average charges for goods
and services at a rate not seen for at least a decade, boding well for stronger
profits growth.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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