Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,547,000 units (1.530
million expected).
This is 1.2% (±8.6%)* above the revised October estimate of 1,528,000
(originally 1.530 million units) and 12.8% (±11.3%) above the November 2019 SAAR
of 1,371,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was +13.6%.
Single-family
housing starts in November were at a SAAR of 1,186,000; this is 0.4% (±7.9%)*
above the revised October figure of 1,181,000 units (+29.1% YoY). Multi-family:
361,000 units (+4.0% MoM; -16.1% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,163,000. This is 12.1% (±5.6%) below the
revised October estimate of 1,323,000 (originally 1.343 million units) and 4.8%
(±10.6%)* below the November 2019 SAAR of 1,222,000 units; the NSA comparison:
-6.0% YoY.
Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 874,000; this is 0.6% (±7.5%)* below the revised October rate of 879,000 units (-5.8% YoY). Multi-family: 289,000 units (-34.9% MoM; -6.6% YoY).
Total
permits amounted to a SAAR of 1,639,000 units (1.550 million expected). This is
6.2% (±1.5%) above the revised October rate of 1,544,000 and 8.5% (±1.8%) above
the November 2019 SAAR of 1,510,000 units; the NSA comparison: +8.3% YoY.
Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 1,143,000; this is 1.3% (±0.8%) above the revised October figure of 1,128,000 units (+23.1% YoY). Multi-family: 496,000 units (+19.2% MoM; -12.6% YoY).
Ending
a string of three successive months of record highs, builder confidence in the
market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 86 in December,
according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Despite the
decline, this is still the second-highest reading in the history of the series
after last month’s mark of 90.
“Housing
demand is strong entering 2021, however the coming year will see housing
affordability challenges as inventory remains low and construction costs are
rising,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck
Fowke. “Policymakers should take note to avoid increasing regulatory costs
associated with land development and residential construction.”
“Builder
confidence fell back from historic levels in December, as housing remains a
bright spot for a recovering economy,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
“The issues that have limited housing supply in recent years, including land
and material availability and a persistent skilled labor shortage, will continue
to place upward pressure on construction costs. As the economy improves with
the deployment of a COVID-19 vaccine, interest rates will increase in 2021,
further challenging housing affordability in the face of strong demand for
single-family homes.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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