The Institute for
Supply Management‘s (ISM) monthly sentiment survey showed a jump in the proportion
of U.S. manufacturers reporting expansion in March. The
“The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in March,” observed Timothy Fiore, Chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “However, Survey Committee Members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts limiting availability of parts and materials. Extended lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are affecting all segments of the manufacturing economy. Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to part shortages, and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential.”
The services sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- showed soared to an all-time high of service-sector respondents reporting expansion (+8.4PP, to 63.7%). The most noteworthy changes in the sub-indexes included new orders (+15.3PP) and business activity (+13.9PP); the input prices sub-index also rose 2.2PP.
Of
the industries we track, only Wood Products did not expand. Respondents included
the following:
Construction. “Residential new home construction demand continues
to outpace supply. Building material delays, discontinuations and shortages are
beginning to develop. Shipping delays at the L.A. and Long Beach ports have
contributed to longer lead times. Cold weather in Texas has hurt several
component manufacturers for building materials. We have encountered the ‘perfect
storm’ for building material shortages and price increases.”
Real Estate. “Business is picking up as mandated restrictions
seem to be easing and spring is right around the corner.”
Findings of IHS Markit’s March survey results were consistent with their ISM counterparts.
Manufacturing. March PMI at second-highest on record amid marked
new order growth and supply chain disruptions.
Key findings:
*
Output growth softens amid raw material shortages
* Unprecedented deterioration in vendor performance
* Costs and charges rise at historically elevated rates
Services. Fastest rise in business activity since July 2014 as
new order growth reaches six-year high.
Key findings:
*
Upturns in output and new orders accelerate to strong rates
* Price gauges hit highest on record amid supply chain disruptions
* Business optimism improves since February
Commentary
by Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist:
Manufacturing. “March saw manufacturers struggle to cope with
surging inflows of new orders. Although output continued to rise at a solid
pace, capacity is being severely strained by the combination of soaring demand
and supply chain disruptions: supply
chain delays and backlogs of uncompleted orders are growing at rates
unprecedented in the survey’s 14-year history, meaning inventories of finished
goods are falling at a steep rate.
“Pricing
power has risen accordingly as demand outstrips supply: raw material prices are
increasing at the sharpest rate for a decade and factory gate selling prices
have risen to a degree not seen since at least 2007.
“The
fastest rates of increase for both new orders and prices was reported among
producers of consumer goods, as the arrival of stimulus checks in the post
added fuel to a marked upswing in demand as the economy continued to pull out
of the malaise caused by the pandemic.
“With
business expectations becoming even more optimistic in March, further strong
production growth looks likely in the second quarter, but the big question will
be whether rising price pressures also become more entrenched.
Services. “U.S. business activity is growing at the fastest rate
for six-and-a-half years, setting the economy up for a strong start to 2021.
Although consumer-facing sectors, notably hospitality, travel, and tourism,
continue to be adversely affected by COVID-19 restrictions, and will be for
some time to come, other parts of the economy are springing back into life.
Financial services and business services are faring well, accompanying a strong
manufacturing recovery. Even some hard hit consumer-facing sectors are enjoying
some loosening of restrictions or adapting to life with the virus.
“A
wide variety of costs are rising, however, putting additional pressure on
companies across the board. Many materials prices are sharply higher, transport
costs are increasing and wage pressures are building as firms struggle to hire
suitable staff, resulting in the largest monthly rise in service sector costs
since comparable data were first available in 2009.
“Some
of these higher costs will inevitably prove transitory as pandemic-related
disruptions to supply start to ease, but it remains unclear how long these
price pressures will persist for due to uncertainties over the duration of
social distancing requirements and the strength of demand over the coming
months.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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