Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,739,000 units (1.620
million expected).
This is 19.4% (±13.7%) above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000
(originally 1.421 million units) and 37.0% (±15.2%) above the March 2020 SAAR
of 1,269,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was 38.2%.
Single-family
housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,238,000; this is 15.3% (±17.4%)*
above the revised February figure of 1,074,000 units (+40.1% YoY).
Multi-family: 501,000 units (+30.8% MoM; +33.4% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,580,000. This is 16.6% (±14.0%) above the
revised February estimate of 1,355,000 (originally 1.362 million units) and 23.4%
(±13.7%) above the March 2020 SAAR of 1,280,000 units; the NSA comparison: +24.3%
YoY.
Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 1,099,000; this is 5.3% (±11.7%)* above the revised February rate of 1,044,000 units (+22.3% YoY). Multi-family: 481,000 units (+54.7% MoM; +29.3% YoY).
Total
permits amounted to a SAAR of 1,766,000 units (1.750 million expected). This is
2.7% (±1.7%) above the revised February rate of 1,720,000 (originally 1.682
million units) and 30.2% (±1.8%) above the March 2020 SAAR of 1,356,000 units;
the NSA comparison: +36.6% YoY.
Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 1,199,000; this is 4.6% (±1.9%) above the revised February figure of 1,146,000 units (+41.5% YoY). Multi-family: 567,000 units (-1.2% MoM; +26.3% YoY).
Strong
buyer demand pushed builder confidence up in April even as builders continued
to grapple with rising lumber prices and supply chain issues and consumers
faced higher home prices due to a lack inventory. The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo
Housing Market Index (HMI) shows that builder confidence in the market for
newly built single-family homes rose one point to 83 in April.
“Despite
strong buyer traffic, builders continue to face challenges to add much needed
housing supply to the market,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck
Fowke. “The supply chain for residential construction is tight,
particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and
other building materials. Though builders are seeking to keep home prices
affordable in a market in need of more inventory, policymakers must find ways
to increase the supply of building materials as the economy runs hot in 2021.”
“While
mortgage interest rates have trended higher since February and home prices
continue to outstrip inflation, housing demand appears to be unwavering for now
as buyer traffic reached its highest level since November,” said NAHB Chief
Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB’s forecast is for ongoing growth in single-family
construction in 2021, albeit at a lower growth rate than realized in 2020.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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