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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Wednesday, February 9, 2022

December 2021 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports fell (17 MMBF or -12.8%) in December, along with imports (59 MMBF or -4.6%). Exports were 20 MMBF (21.3%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 201 MMBF (-14.2%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 221 MMBF (-16.8%) smaller. However, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending December 2021 was 3.2% higher than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).

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North America (58.7% of total exports; of which Mexico: 37.5%; Canada: 21.3%), Asia (19.1%; especially China: 3.2%; and Japan: 5.4%), and the Caribbean: 9.6% especially the Dominican Republic: 2.0%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -16.7% relative to the same months of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (81.9%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 4.4% higher YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 29.1% compared to the prior year; imports: +5.1%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 40.9% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 31.1%, and Eastern: 19.4%. Seattle (17.2% of the U.S. total), Mobile (9.5%), Laredo (12.9%) and San Diego (16.0%) were among the most active districts. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 56.4% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (20.7%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 18.1% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (14.4%), treated lumber (10.0%), other pine (11.1%) and finger-jointed (11.0%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were up 11.5% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +16.0%; and treated: +19.5%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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