The Institute for Supply
Management‘s (ISM) monthly sentiment survey began 2022 with a smaller proportion of
U.S. manufacturers reporting expansion. The
The services sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- also retreated further in January (-2.4PP, to 59.9%). The retreat was primarily driven by exports (-15.6PP) and business activity (-8.4PP), but partially offset by inventory sentiment (+9.2PP). Input prices (-1.6PP) again hovered near the subindex’s record high.
Of
the industries we track, Real Estate and Construction expanded, Paper Products and
Ag & Forestry contracted, while Wood Products was unchanged. Respondent
comments included the following:
Construction. “Costs have escalated to what we believe are
unsustainable levels. Available labor is nonexistent, so we have cut staffing
and are taking on fewer projects temporarily in an attempt to reduce cost.
Outsourcing where possible. We are not optimistic at this time.”
IHS Markit‘s
survey headline results paralleled their ISM counterparts.
Manufacturing. PMI drops to lowest since October 2020 amid soft
demand conditions and labor shortages
Key findings:
*
Output and new order growth slow amid supply and labor shortages
* Rate of job creation eases to softest in 18-month sequence of growth
* Business confidence picks up to 14-month high
Services. Business activity growth slows notably amid Omicron
outbreak and softer demand conditions
Key findings:
*
Output expansion slowest in 18-month sequence of growth
* Pressure on capacity wanes as employment rises at faster pace
* Output charges increase at second-quickest rate on record
Commentary
by Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist:
Manufacturing. “The Omicron outbreak has hit manufacturing hard,
exacerbating existing headwinds by subduing demand, creating further supply
chain issues and causing widespread staff shortages, often through absenteeism
due to the surge in COVID-19 infections. The steep downturn in the survey data
are indicative of manufacturing production falling in January.
“However,
the overall impact on supply chains from Omicron has been less marked than in
prior covid waves, and raw material price pressures have come down as the
global supply crunch appears to be improving. Hence manufacturers are upbeat
about the outlook, with future output expectations rising to the highest for
over a year to suggest that the current downturn may prove short-lived.”
Services. “The US economy has been hit hard by the Omicron
variant at the start of 2022, with growth faltering to the weakest for 18
months to signal a near-stalling of the recovery. All broad sectors of the
economy reported business activity to have been adversely affected by the surge
in virus cases, though the slowdown was led by the sharpest drop in activity
for consumer services recorded since December 2020 as virus-related health
protection measures were tightened to the highest since May of last year.
“As
well as the demand-dampening effect of the virus, businesses are facing
multiple headwinds, including labor shortages, supply chain issues, rising
costs and soaring inflation, combined with concerns over the future resilience
of demand amid rising interest rates and reduced fiscal support, all of which
point to economic growth slowing sharply in the first quarter.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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