The
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8% in February
(+0.7% expected)
after rising 0.6% in January. Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter,
and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all-items
increase. The gasoline index rose 6.6% in February and accounted for almost a
third of the all-items monthly increase; other energy component indexes were
mixed. The food index rose 1.0% as the food at home index rose 1.4%; both were
the largest monthly increases since April 2020.
The
index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5% in February following a 0.6%
increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in
the increase, with a broad set of indexes also contributing, including those
for recreation, household furnishings and operations, motor vehicle insurance,
personal care, and airline fares.
The
all-items index rose 7.9% for the 12 months ending February. The 12-month
increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period
ending January 1982. The index of all items less food and energy rose 6.4%, the
largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index
rose 25.6% over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9%, the largest
12-month increase since the period ending July 1981.
The
Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI-FD) increased 0.8% in February (+1.0% expected).
This rise followed advances of 1.2% in January and 0.4% in December 2021. On an
unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 10.0% for the 12 months ended in
February.
In
February, the advance in the index for final demand can be attributed to prices
for final demand goods, which rose 2.4%. The index for final demand services
was unchanged.
Prices
for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2% in February
following a 0.8% increase in January. For the 12 months ended in February, the
index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 6.6%.
Final Demand
Final
demand goods: Prices for final demand goods jumped 2.4% in February, the
largest advance since data were first calculated in December 2009. Two-thirds
of the broad-based increase can be traced to an 8.2% rise in the index for
final demand energy. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy and
for final demand foods also moved higher, 0.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
Product
detail: Nearly 40% of the February increase in prices for final demand goods
can be attributed to the index for gasoline, which rose 14.8%. Prices for
diesel fuel, electric power, jet fuel, motor vehicles and equipment, and dairy
products also advanced. In contrast, the index for fresh and dry vegetables
decreased 9.4%. Prices for beef and veal and for hot rolled steel sheet and
strip also moved lower.
Final
demand services: Prices for final demand services were unchanged in February
after a 1.0% increase in January. In February, a 1.9% rise in the index for
final demand transportation and warehousing services and a 0.2% advance in
margins for final demand trade services offset a 0.4% decrease in the index for
final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. (Trade
indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)
Product detail: Within the index for final demand services in February, prices for truck transportation of freight moved up 2.0%. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, machinery and vehicle wholesaling, transportation of passengers (partial), and outpatient care (partial) also rose. Conversely, prices for portfolio management decreased 4.2%. The indexes for guestroom rental; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; automobile retailing (partial); and residential real estate loans (partial) also declined.
The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track all advanced on both a MoM and YoY basis.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of
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