What is Macro Pulse?

Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
Macro Pulse's timely yet in-depth coverage.


Monday, October 16, 2023

August 2023 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

Click image for larger view

With August exports of goods and services at $256.0 billion (+1.6% MoM; -2.1% YoY) and imports at $314.3 billion (-0.7% MoM; -4.4% YoY), the net trade deficit was $58.3 billion (-9.9% MoM; -13.4% YoY). 

Click image for larger view

Click image for larger view

Softwood lumber exports rose (5 MMBF or +5.0%) in August, while imports edged lower (2 MMBF or -0.2%). Exports were 20 MMBF (-15.5%) below year-earlier levels; imports: 251 MMBF (-17.7%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 231 MMBF (-18.0%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending August 2023 was 5.9% below the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

Click image for larger view

North America (61.2% of total softwood lumber exports; of which Mexico: 39.0%; Canada: 22.2%), Asia (11.8%; especially China: 3.1%), and the Caribbean (20.6%; especially the Dominican Republic: 5.6%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were 66.1% higher than the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (83.5%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 9.5% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were down 4.7% compared to the prior year; imports: -8.5%.

Click image for larger view

Click image for larger view

U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the Gulf customs region represented 42.2% of the U.S. total; West Coast: 30.1%, and Eastern: 18.2%. Mobile (18.3% of the U.S. total), San Diego (15.6%) Laredo (15.4%), and Seattle (12.0%) were the most active districts. At the same time, the Great Lakes customs region handled 56.0% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (19.3%) -- coming into the United States. 

Click image for larger view

Click image for larger view

Southern yellow pine comprised 20.5% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (11.6%), treated lumber (16.5%), other pine (12.0%) and finger-jointed (12.0%) were also significant.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.