The
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS’s household survey) was unchanged at 3.8%, as labor-force expansion of 90,000 was essentially matched by +86,000 becoming employed.
Observations from the employment reports include:
* Although the two surveys were directionally consistent, jobs gains were far greater than the increase in employed workers.
*
Goods-producing industries added 29,000 jobs; service providers: +307,000. Job
gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (+96,000); government (+73,000);
health care (+40,900); professional, scientific, and technical services
(+29,000); and social assistance (+25,000). Total nonfarm employment (156.9
million) is now 4.5 million jobs above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020 (private
sector: +4.5 million; public sector: -9,000). Nonetheless, employment is also perhaps
5.1 million below its potential if accounting for growth in the working-age
population since January 2006.
Manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs, led by durable goods (+13,000). That result may be consistent with the change in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment subindex, which moved back to expansion (to 51.2) in September. Wood products manufacturing gained 1,400 jobs (ISM was unchanged); paper manufacturing: +1,600 (ISM unchanged); construction: +11,000 (ISM increased).
* The number of employment-age persons not in the labor force rose (+124,000) to 99.5 million; that level is 4.3 million higher than in February 2020. Although working-age civilian population growth (+215,000) outpaced growth in the number of employed (+86,000), the employment-population ratio (EPR) remained at 60.4%, which is 0.7PP below its February 2020 level.
* Also, although the working-age civilian population grew by 215,000 while the labor force expanded by 90,000, the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees nudged up by $0.07 (to $33.88), and the year-over-year increase decelerated to +4.2%. Despite the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls being unchanged at 34.4 hours, average weekly earnings rose (+$2.41) to $1,165.47 (+3.5% YoY). With the consumer price index running at an annual rate of +3.7% in August, the average worker may be about breaking even in terms of purchasing power.
* Full-time workers slipped (-22,000) to 134.2 million; there are now 3.4 million more full-time jobs than in February 2020. For perspective, however, the non-institutional working-age civilian population has risen by nearly 7.8 million during that period. Workers employed part time for economic reasons (shown in the graph above) -- e.g., slack work or business conditions, or could find only part-time work -- fell by 156,000, while those working part time for non-economic reasons jumped (+177,000); multiple-job holders: +123,000.
For a “sanity test” of the job numbers, we consult
employment withholding/FICA taxes published by the U.S. Treasury.
Although “noisy” and highly seasonal, the data show the amount withheld in September
retreated by $7.04 billion, to $235.7 billion (-2.9% MoM; -0.5% YoY). To reduce
some of the monthly volatility and determine broader trends, we average the
most recent three months of data and estimate a percentage change from the same
months in the previous year; the average of the three months ending September was
up 0.3% from the year-earlier average.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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