February 2010 World Trade: Volumes Mostly Up but Prices Down

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Based on preliminary data from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (known by its Dutch acronym “CPB”), world trade volume rose by 1.8 percent in February from the previous month, following a revised decrease of 0.5 percent in January. Trade volumes increased worldwide, with the exception of imports of emerging economies in Asia. Export growth was highest in emerging economies, most notably in Asia and Latin America. In February, trade was 7.1 percent below the peak level reached in April 2008, but 16.0 percent above the trough reached in May 2009.

U.S. dollar prices of goods involved in world trade dropped 1.8 percent between January and February, but were 9.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Prices were 15.2 percent below the peak reached in July 2008, but 6.0 percent higher than the January 2009 trough.

Looking ahead, we believe the uncertainty associated with sovereign debt problems around the world is likely to slow the global recovery.