November 2010 Macro Pulse - Cassandras of the Double Dip

For those whose memory of Greek mythology is at best a bit foggy, Cassandra was a prophetess who was cursed so that her predictions - though correct - were never believed. Our prediction since 2H2008 of another recession to follow fairly closely on the heels of the one that officially ended in June 2009 has not always been well received. In October, Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, even coined the pejorative “Cassandras of the double dip” to describe those like us who expect a second downturn. Obviously the jury is still out on whether our view or some other more-optimistic alternative will be vindicated and thus should have been believed, but our reading of the last month’s economic “tea leaves” gives us little reason to change our forecast.

For example,....

Click here to read the entire November 2010 Macro Pulse.

The Macro Pulse blog is a commentary about recent economic developments that affect the forest products industry. That commentary provides context for our 24-month forecast, which is contained in the monthly Economic Outlook newsletter available through Forest2Market. The monthly Macro Pulse newsletter summarizes and gives a convenient point of access to the previous 30 days of commentary available on this website.