February 2011 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and New Orders

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Shipments and inventories posted gains at the total manufacturing level during February, but new orders shrank according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
 

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Total shipments, up six consecutive months, increased $1.4 billion (0.3 percent) to $448.3 billion. Transportation equipment had the largest increase ($0.7 billion, 1.4 percent, to $49.1 billion) among durable goods. Food products led the increase in non-durables, up $0.8 billion (1.3 percent) to $59.5 billion. Solid wood shipments fell by 0.7 percent, followed closely by Paper at -0.5 percent.
 

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Data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) help round out the picture on goods shipments. AAR reported a 0.6 percent drop in not-seasonally adjusted rail shipments during February; only lumber and wood products jumped higher. Seasonally adjusting the AAR numbers makes the picture even gloomier, with U.S. rail carloads declining 3.0 percent. AAR blamed winter weather for the drop. The PCI (which measures diesel consumption of highway trucking) also fell by 1.5 percent. So, the Census Bureau shipment numbers appear to be contradicted by other data.
 

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Total inventories, up 13 of the last 14 months, increased $4.6 billion (0.8 percent) to $565.0 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.26, up from 1.25 in January.

Transportation equipment led the increase in durable goods inventories with a jump of $0.8 billion (1.0 percent) to $87.8 billion. Petroleum and coal products (up $0.8 billion, or 1.5 percent to $54.1 billion) led the increase in non-durable goods. Wood and Paper inventories both moved higher in February, by 1.2 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
 

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New orders, down following three consecutive monthly increases, fell $0.4 billion (0.1 percent) to $446.0 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent.

Durable goods orders decreased $1.3 billion (0.6 percent) to $200.8 billion, pulled lower by transportation equipment (-$0.8 billion, or -1.5 percent, to $50.4 billion). Nondurable goods orders rose $0.8 billion (0.3 percent) to $245.2 billion.