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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Thursday, April 21, 2011

March 2011 Consumer and Producer Price Indices

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The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Gasoline and food prices continued to rise and together accounted for almost three quarters of the seasonally adjusted all-items increase in March. The gasoline index posted its ninth consecutive increase and has now risen 14.4 percent over the last three months. The household energy index rose as well, with advances in the fuel oil and electricity indexes more than offsetting a decline in the index for natural gas.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for Finished Goods (PPI) rose 0.7 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. This advance followed a 1.6-percent increase in February and a 0.8-percent gain in January. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods climbed 1.5 percent in March and the crude goods index declined 0.5 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 5.8 percent for the 12 months ended March 2011, the largest year-over-year gain since a 5.9-percent advance in March 2010.
 
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Details at different stages of processing include:

Finished goods -- In March, nearly ninety percent of the increase in the finished goods index can be attributed to a 2.6-percent rise in prices for finished energy goods. Also contributing to the advance in the finished goods index, prices for goods other than foods and energy moved up 0.3 percent. By contrast, the index for finished consumer foods moved down 0.2 percent in March.

Intermediate goods -- This index moved up 1.5 percent in March, the eighth consecutive advance. The broad-based March increase was led by prices for intermediate energy goods, which rose 2.9 percent. The indexes for intermediate goods less foods and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds also were factors in the intermediate goods advance, moving up 0.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended March 2011, prices for intermediate goods climbed 8.9 percent, the largest advance since rising 9.8 percent in October 2008.

Crude goods -- The crude-goods index fell 0.5 percent in March. For the 3 months ended in March, prices for crude materials advanced 6.2 percent, subsequent to a 13.0-percent jump for the 3 months ended December 2010. Leading the monthly decrease in March, the index for crude nonfood materials less energy fell 2.3 percent. Also contributing to this decline, prices for crude energy materials moved down 0.5 percent. By contrast, the index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 0.3 percent in March.
 
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In the forest products sector, most indices (except pulpwood and softwood logs) we track moved higher in March. Except for pulpwood, prices are all higher than year-earlier levels although the rate of growth has slowed in several cases.
 
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