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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

December 2011 Consumer and Producer Price Indices

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The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index was unchanged in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Similar to last month, the energy index declined in December and offset increases in other indexes. The gasoline index declined for the third month in a row and the household energy index declined as well. The food index rose in December, with the index for food at home turning up after declining last month.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in November. The indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and tobacco all posted increases, while the indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel all declined.

The all items index has risen 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, a decline from last month's 3.4 percent figure. Recent declines in the energy index have brought its 12-month change down to 6.6 percent from 19.3 percent in September. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy held at 2.2 percent, while the 12- month change in the food index edged up from 4.6 percent to 4.7 percent.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for finished goods (PPI) declined 0.1 percent in December. Prices for finished goods moved up 0.3 percent in November and fell 0.3 percent in October. At the earlier stages of processing, the index for intermediate goods decreased 0.5 percent in December, and crude goods prices moved down 1.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the index for finished goods increased 4.8 percent in 2011 after rising 3.8 percent in 2010.
 
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Details at different stages of processing include:

Finished goods -- The December decline in finished goods prices is attributable to decreases of 0.8 percent in the indexes for finished energy goods and finished consumer foods. By contrast, prices for finished goods less foods and energy increased 0.3 percent.

Intermediate goods -- This index fell 0.5 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in November. Accounting for three-quarters of this broad-based decline, the index for intermediate materials less foods and energy decreased 0.5 percent. Prices for intermediate energy goods and for intermediate foods and feeds moved down 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. In 2011, prices for intermediate goods rose 6.1 percent after increasing 6.3 percent in 2010.

Crude goods -- The index for crude goods decreased 1.1 percent in December. For the three months ending in December, prices inched up 0.1 percent following a 1.8 percent rise from June to September. The December monthly decline is mostly attributable to the index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, which fell 2.6 percent. Prices for crude energy materials edged down 0.1 percent and the index for crude nonfood materials less energy was unchanged.
 
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A majority of the individual price indices we track were either unchanged or increased relative to November; two declined. All except softwood lumber had higher indices in December than a year earlier. Only pulpwood rose more quickly on a year-over-year basis in December than in November.
 
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