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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Sunday, October 7, 2012

August 2012 Personal Income and Outlays, Retail Sales and Consumer Debt

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Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed that personal income increased $15.0 billion (0.1 percent), and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $12.5 billion (0.1 percent) in August. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.2 billion (0.5 percent). Real (inflation-adjusted) DPI decreased 0.3 percent while real PCE increased 0.1 percent.
 
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The Census Bureau reported that consumers increased spending on retail goods during August (0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted). Excluding auto and gasoline sales, however, retail spending among other categories either declined or saw little gain.
 
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Total consumer debt outstanding jumped by a seasonally adjusted $18.1 billion (8.0 percent annualized). Revolving (mostly credit card) debt increased by $4.2 billion (5.9 percent annualized), while non-revolving debt (mainly student and auto loans) increased by $13.9 billion (9.0 percent annualized). In August federal student loans comprised more than three-quarters of the increase in non-revolving debt.
 
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The most prominent feature of the last two charts is the December 2010 spike. The Federal Reserve in September revised data from December 2010 onward, but not prior data. That discontinuity in the series has created a firestorm of criticism.

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