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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Friday, October 5, 2012

September 2012 Employment Report

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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll employment rose by 114,000 in September, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent. Nearly half of September’s private-sector job gains occurred in just the Education & Health Services category (+49,000). Government employment expanded by 10,000. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for July was revised from +141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to +142,000.
 
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Employment is converging with the previous peak at a slower pace than all prior recessions going back to 1973; circles in the chart above indicate when previous recoveries reached their corresponding pre-recessionary employment highs. The economy still has 4.52 million fewer jobs than at the January 2008 peak.
 
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The number of people not in the labor force fell by 211,000 in September, edging down from August’s all-time high of 88.9 million. The ratio of employed persons to the entire population moved back to the top of the range seen since the end of 2009.
 
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The civilian labor force participation rate (the share of the population 16 years and older working or seeking work) ticked up to 63.6 percent. At the same time, the annual percentage increase in average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees advanced to 1.43 percent. With the price index for urban consumers rising at a 1.7 percent annual pace, that means wages are falling in real terms (i.e., wage increases are not keeping up with price inflation).
 
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Full-time employment jumped by 838,000 jobs, followed by part-time employment (+582,000). The increase in full-time employees brought their numbers back almost to the peak seen in March.

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