March 2013 International Trade (Pulp, Paper & Paperboard)

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Exports of pulp, paper and paperboard increased by 123,000 tons (5.2 percent) in March. Imports also rose by 43,000 tons (5.7 percent). Exports were 153,000 tons (5.8 percent) lower than a year earlier while imports were up by 3,000 tons (0.4 percent). 

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For U.S. pulp exports, year-to-date levels are down by 6 percent compared to 2012. China continues to be the largest market for U.S. product at 58 percent, nearly nine times the size of the second largest destination (Mexico). Exports to China are off 9 percent year to date. In terms of country rankings, Belgium has jumped from 20^th place last year to 13^th this year, registering an increase of over 200 percent in receipt of U.S. pulp exports. 

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Total paper and paperboard exports are up over 9 percent. However, among the top five-ranked destinations by volume, three of the five countries are down on a comparative year-to-date basis: Mexico (rank #1), down 6.2 percent; India (rank #3), down 8.6 percent; and Japan (rank #4), down 9.2 percent. The other two countries ranked among the top five charted substantial increases in paper and paperboard exports: Canada (rank #2), up 80.8 percent; and Taiwan (rank #5), up 37.5 percent. Pakistan is registering a significant (over 1,000 percent) increase in U.S. paper and paperboard export volumes. 

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Pulp imports are up nearly 7 percent year to date. Canada is the primary source, representing nearly 65 percent of imported volume year to date, followed by Brazil at 32 percent. Canadian shipments are off over 3 percent year to date compared to prior year levels while Brazilian shipments have increased by nearly 32 percent. Indonesia, which did not register as one of the top 20 pulp importers last year through March has jumped up to 7^th place through March 2013. 

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For paper and paperboard imports, year-to-date levels are down by almost 6 percent compared to 2012. Canada represents nearly 90 percent of all paper and paperboard imports. Notable changes from prior year-to-date levels are a reduction in Sweden's export levels by nearly 44 percent and an increase in imports from Finland and Mexico by over 13 and 16 percent, respectively. Indonesian paper and paperboard exports are also up nearly 9 percent from prior year-to-date levels.

The pattern of imports and exports between the United States and China is consistent with a slowing Chinese economy. The increase in Indonesian imports of pulp, paper, and paperboard into the United States may also signal Indonesia is shifting volume here and elsewhere as China's market growth slows.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.