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Total
housing starts were
nearly unchanged in February, inching down to a seasonally adjusted and
annualized rate (SAAR ) of 907,000 units. That
was 2,000 fewer units (-0.2 percent) than January’s upwardly revised 909,000,
and nearly 18 percent below November’s peak of 1.101 million units. The multi-family
component contributed all of the decline (-4,000 units or -1.2 percent) since
the single-family component increased by 2,000 units (0.3 percent).
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The
year-over-year percentage change in total starts contracted for the first time
since August 2011, dropping to -5.6 percent. Single-family starts were 9.3
percent below February 2012’s levels; the multi-family component was
still “in the black” with +1.8 percent.
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Completions
rose modestly (+37,000 units or 4.4 percent) in February, to 886,000 units SAAR . The increase was greater in the single-family
component (24,000 units versus 13,000 multi-family units). Total completions
were 22.9 percent above year-earlier levels.
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Total
permits jumped by 73,000 units (7.7 percent) SAAR ,
to 1.018 million in February -- more than making up for January’s decline. The increase
occurred entirely in the multi-family component (84,000 units or 24.3 percent);
single-family permits fell by 11,000 units (-1.8 percent).
Despite
February’s uptick in the year-over-year percentage change in total permits (7.3
percent), the rate of growth extended the slowing trend seen since late 2012.
This trend is most readily apparent in the recent erosion of builder
confidence. The National Association of Home Builders confidence
index rose one point (to 47) in March after plummeting (by the largest
monthly drop in the survey’s history) into negative sentiment territory during
February. An index reading below 50 means more builders think market conditions
are poor than think they are good.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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