In June’s Macro Pulse report, we chronicled
that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had slashed its estimate of 1Q2014
GDP growth from an initial, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of
+0.1 percent (relative to 4Q2013) to -1.0 percent. We now know, thanks to the second
revision, that the -1.0 percent estimate was overly optimistic; the BEA now
pegs the contraction at -2.9 percent -- the fastest rate of contraction in five
years, and 7.0 percentage points lower than in 3Q2013.
Unusually cold winter weather is the most popular
scapegoat for the poor 1Q showing. As highlighted in our June 26 GDP blog post,
however,…
The Macro
Pulse blog is a commentary about recent economic developments affecting the
forest products industry. The monthly Macro Pulse newsletter summarizes the previous 30 days of commentary available on
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