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Total
housing starts retreated
in June, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 0.893 million
units. That was 92,000 fewer units (-9.3 percent) than May’s 0.985 million, and
19.2 percent below November’s peak of 1.105 million units. The preponderance of
the decrease occurred in the single family component (-57,000 units or 9.0
percent); multi-family: -35,000 units (9.9 percent).
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The
year-over-year percentage change in total starts slowed again in June, falling
to 5.6 percent. Single-family starts were 3.9 percent below year-earlier
levels; the more volatile multi-family component jumped up to 34.8 percent,
however.
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Completions
dropped by 108,000 units (-12.0 percent) in June, to 789,000 units SAAR. The
multi-family component dominated the decrease (-67,000 units or 24.8 percent); single-family
completions: -41,000 units or 6.5 percent. Total completions were 4.8 percent
above year-earlier levels, however.
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Total
permits retreated by 42,000 units (-4.2 percent) SAAR, to 963,000 in June. The decrease
occurred entirely in the multi-family component (-58,000 units or 14.9 percent).
Single-family permits rose by 16,000 units (2.6 percent). Total permits were 6.7
percent above year-earlier levels -- single- and multi-family components were,
respectively, 5.9 and 8.1 percent higher.
Time
will tell whether June marked an end to the slide in the rate of annual growth in
total permits seen since late 2012. It may, as the latest National Association
of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market
Index (HMI) rose four points in July, to 53. An index value above 50 means
more builders feel the market is good than feel it is poor. “This is the first time that builder confidence has
been above 50 since January and an important sign that it is strengthening as
pent-up demand brings more buyers into the marketplace,” said NAHB Chairman
Kevin Kelly.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding
any investment.
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