October 2014 International Trade (General)

Click image for larger view

The goods and services deficit was $43.4 billion in October, down $0.2 billion from $43.6 billion in September. October exports were $197.5 billion, $2.3 billion more than September exports. October imports were $241.0 billion, $2.1 billion more than September imports.

The October decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of less than $0.1 billion to $62.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.2 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $20.5 billion, or 5.1%, from the same period in 2013. Exports increased $57.8 billion or 3.1%. Imports increased $78.3 billion or 3.4%. 

Click image for larger view

On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume decreased by 1.9% in September (from the prior month) while prices fell by 1.6%. It is interesting to compare those data points against shipping container counts (which are a good metric for gauging economic activity). “Export container counts continue to weaken,” wrote analyst Steven Hansen, “which is a warning that the global economy is slowing. Export three month rolling averages continue to decelerate -- being in negative territory year-over-year. This is a headwind for 4Q2014 GDP."

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.