October 2014 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments decreased $3.8 billion or 0.8% to $499.2 billion in October. Shipments of durable goods increased $0.1 billion or 0.1% to $246.5 billion, led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased $3.9 billion or 1.5% to $252.7 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood shipments fell by 0.6% while Paper increased 0.4%. 

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Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.1% to $655.6 billion (the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis). The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.31, up from 1.30 in September.

Inventories of durable goods increased $1.8 billion or 0.5% to $406.6 billion, led by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories decreased $1.3 billion or 0.5% to $249.0 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of Wood and Paper expanded by 0.5 and 0.1%, respectively. 

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New orders decreased $3.3 billion or 0.7% to $496.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.4% -- the fifth drop in the last six months. Durable goods orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.3% to $243.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for nondurable goods decreased $3.9 billion or 1.5% to $252.7 billion.

Prior to July, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping roughly 75% of the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July’s transportation-led spike now in the rearview mirror, new orders have dropped back to around 69% of their December 2007 high. 

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Unfilled durable-goods orders increased $4.9 billion or 0.4% to $1,174.2 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.73, up from 6.71 in September. Real unfilled orders, which had been a good litmus test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June were back to just 79% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders jumped to 102% of the prior peak in July, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders, hence, this metric is likely to remain elevated for several years.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.