Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
Sales of new
single-family homes in November declined for a second month, by 7,000 units (-1.6%)
relative to the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate
(SAAR) of 438,000. Data for October was revised down from 458,000 to 445,000
units. This data series has undergone significant revisions in recent months;
post-revision sales since
May are roughly 22% lower than initial estimates. Sales have been flat
since early 2013, with June 2013 marking the fastest rate of 459,000 units. Sales
in November were 3.1% below year-earlier levels.
Meanwhile,
the median price of new homes sold retreated from October’s peak, down by $9,200
(-3.2%) to $280,900. The average price of homes sold fell by
an even greater $53,400 (-14.2%). Although single-family starts dropped faster
than sales in November, the three-month average ratio of starts to sales jumped
to 1.54.
Click image
for larger view
As
mentioned in our post
on November’s housing permits, starts and completions, single-unit completions declined
by 18,000 units (-2.9%). Nonetheless, new-home inventory expanded in absolute (+3,000
units) terms while months of inventory were stable.
Click image
for larger view
Existing home sales
tumbled in November (-320,000 units or 6.1%) to 4.93 million units (SAAR). With
sales of new homes falling more slowly than existing homes, the share of total
sales comprised of new homes rose to 8.2%. The median price of previously owned
homes sold in November slipped (-$2,200 or 1.1%) to $205,300. Inventory of
existing homes declined in absolute (-150,000 units) terms, but months of inventory
was unchanged at 5.1 months.
Click image
for larger view
Housing
affordability degraded in October despite the median price of existing
homes for sale falling by $900 (-0.4%) to $208,700. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s
reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices
posted a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of -0.2% in October (+4.6% relative
to a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since October 2012).
“After
a long period when home prices rose, but at a slower pace with each passing
month, we are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong note and
accelerate into 2015,” said David
Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P
Dow Jones Indices. “Two months ago, all 20 cities were experiencing weakening
annual price increases. Last month, 18 experienced weakness. This time, 12
cities had weaker annual price growth, but eight saw the pace of price gains
pick up. Seasonally adjusted, all 20 cities had higher prices than a month ago.
“Most
national economic statistics, other than those connected to housing, posted
positive reports in November and early December. Third quarter GDP was revised
to 5% real growth at annual rates, and unemployment was at 5.8% as payrolls
added over 300,000 jobs in November.” However, Blitzer added, “Housing was
somber: housing starts pulled back 1.6%, existing home sales were at 4.93
million, down 6.1%, and new home sales were 438,000, down 1.6%, all in
November.”
Click image
for larger view
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.