November 2014 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $39.0 billion in November (below the consensus expectation of $41.5 billion), down $3.2 billion from $42.2 billion in October. November exports were $196.4 billion, $2.0 billion less than October exports. November imports were $235.4 billion, $5.2 billion less than October imports.

The November decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.3 billion to $58.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.3 billion.

The decrease in exports was primarily due to aircraft. The decline in imports was widespread, except for consumer goods (which grew). Oil imports were down 35 million barrels from last month, and down 24 million barrels from one year ago. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the ex-oil trade deficit was near recent records.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $22.3 billion, or 5.1%, from the same period in 2013. Exports increased $60.0 billion or 2.9%. Imports increased $82.4 billion or 3.3%. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased by 0.1% in October (from the prior month) while prices fell by 1.6%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.