February 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports increased by 9 MMBF (7.9%) in February while imports fell by 13 MMBF (1.3%). Exports were 37 MMBF (23.2%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 105 MMBF (12.3%) higher. The net export deficit was 142 MMBF (20.2%) higher. 

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The rest of North America (i.e., Canada and Mexico) was once again the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in January (44.3%). Asia (especially China and Japan) was a distant second (35.2%). Canada was also the largest single-country destination (24.0%). Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down 60.3% relative to the same period in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (97.4%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 24.5% compared to a year earlier, while imports were up 11.3%. 

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Despite the port slowdown, U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts stayed relative stable in relation to the other districts during February (39.2% of the U.S. total); Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 26.1% of the February total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 69.8% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 29.0%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 28.9% of all softwood lumber exports in February, followed by Douglas-fir with 16.6%. Southern pine exports were down 6.9% YTD relative to a year earlier, while Douglas-fir exports were down 37.8%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.